Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
