Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Drives The Villans' Unlikely Championship Bid
A mere 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the victories have piled up.
Per the data, twice all season has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – but right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, surely, will not continue to blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.